Deterrence and Taiwan

Examine balance between deterrence, provocation and escalation in strategic policies toward China

Drivers of what deters or provokes China: PLA power, tech competition, US-China rivalry, Ukraine fallout

Develop allied response options for crisis management, coalition-building, U.S. preparedness in the Indo-Pacific

Is peace likely in Taiwan over the next five to ten years? What factors determine the likelihood of conflict? How will the international system, particularly US allies such as Japan and South Korea respond to a crisis?

Related Publications

The Taiwan Tightrope Foreign Affairs: Deterrence Is a Balancing Act, and America Is Starting to Slip (Foreign Affairs, May 2025)
Burden Sharing in the Indo-Pacific: Recommendations for U.S. Defense Policy (Testimony for the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations)